Tuesday, 31 May 2016

Sweet moves from Coca-Cola?

Coca-Cola (the British division rather than the whole organisation) has certainly bit the bullet in terms of announcing its plan to sell over 50% of Coke in UK as the no-sugar version. But that’s only by 2020, and the diet versions already make up 43% of its sales. A miserly 7% increase in 4 years is hardly going to make much of a dent in children’s teeth or obesity or diabetes.

And just in Britain.

Especially for a company like Coke with its massive resources in manufacturing, advertising, sales and logistics. An interesting project too in comparison by Coca-Cola Japan on installing Coke vending machines with 95% less electricity used during the day. Surely Coke is on the back foot in the soda wars with a UK sugar tax by 2018 and one already introduced in Mexico. And San Francisco introducing soda health warnings on billboards. Shouldn’t the Coke Group grab the bull by the horns and move 100% of all of its drinks range to no sugar and lo-cal versions? Coke has had problems before with product formulations with New Coke in the 1980’s and then the Vanilla and Cherry Coke versions.

But if 43% of the public is already drinking lo-cal versions then clearly the taste test has been passed and it’s simply a matter of adjusting the manufacturing and logistics mix to phase out the full-fat versions. If sales of Coke are already evenly matched then the healthier shift to Diet Coke would make it the de facto formula and taste of Coke – with added savings in branding and marketing. But at the very least Pepsi or even supermarket giants such as Walmart-Asda or Tesco or fastfood giants like McDonalds or Burger King, must be tempted to steal a march on Coke and boost their own healthy eating values by declaring their drinks or stock policy to be the sugar-free versions only.

While active consumerism will only increase the pressure on the soda market with publicity and lawsuits as with Big Tobacco for knowingly selling unhealthy products. Sugar cube labelling will have an effect: an astonishing 15 sugar cubes in Lucozade and an average of 7 sugar cubes in supposedly healthy or natural drinks such as Ribena, can only affect sales and health for Coke and other drinks makers. And a Coke and a (healthy) smile is what it should be all about all about.

Tim Garbutt, Sincerity PR @timg33

Tuesday, 24 May 2016

AXAing tobacco and China

The announcement this week of AXA Insurance to divest its £1.5BN investments in tobacco is another step towards a smoke-free world. Perhaps a decision not driven by conscience in refusing to invest in cancer-sticks, given the EU announcement the previous week restricting Big Tobacco to allow only plain packaging for cigarettes. As well as the EU regulating for abolition of 10 packs (the casual smoker unlikely to graduate to a full pack of 20 and £10 cost) and menthol flavours, and tighter ecigarette use.

Surely on the latter the plethora of vaping flavours and cigarette lighters and rolling papers and machines creeping out of the smoking cabinet onto the newsagent’s counter need a tweak of legislation? A tweak not dissimilar to supermarkets moving sweets away from the tills and little fingers. AXA may well have realised their investments would in fact be almost worthless without the support of branding to differentiate the commodity. And to be fair, earlier in the year they also divested fossil fuels, so the move against tobacco may be part of that AXA shift. In China one of the few nations with an increasing smoker base, almost a million people will die each year.

And already the volume of counterfeit cigarettes is huge: US Customs states that almost all the illegal imports seized in USA are from China. A $400BN trade in total. And in Fujian alone over 200 workshops churn out illegal smokes – often fortified caves with ramparts and armed militias. As with tax havens, the UK is lagging behind with no central register of public sector investments in cigs – KCC to insist in investing £20M in Marlboro looks woefully old-fashioned if not downright idiotic while supposedly supporting the NHS and Trading Standards and Police in reducing both the legal and illegal tobacco trade. Similarly prisons suppliers such as Aramark providing a range of cigarettes to convicts seems both logistically expensive and an anachronism given the encouragement of no smoking cells.

The SDG30 Goals annually are rather weak on tobacco cessation with a vague goal of reduction – given that another billion smokers may die off in the 21st century before full abolition.

Although smoking is the tip of the spear on Goal 16 for Sustainable Consumption and Production, with a UK sugar-soda tax to be introduced in 2017 (can soda manufacturers really support 7-15 sugar cubes per can of full-fat soda for much longer before switching production to zero calorie only?) and San Francisco council already insisting on billboard advertising for soda to carry a health warning. Tighter regulation of obesity drinks and foods will surely follow, during children’s television at least, and already far-sighted companies such as Nestle are also emphasising their use in their CSR policies and Unilever too. Booze is already limited in its advertising exposure and emphasising sensible drinking at length, ahead of any reformulations of ABV or tightening of regulations for product in stores or bottle size. Given the tobacco precedent, sales of single cans of beer or smaller spirits bottles, or youth-friendly alcopops flavours will disappear amidst tighter store stocking regulations sooner rather than later.

Even coffee shops such as Starbucks could be taking the lead to do more on recycling coffee cups than mere landfill, to complement their Fairtrade work. And Fossil Fuels whether coal or oil or gas or fracking and even nuclear looks set to go the way of whale oil as a fuel and certainly as investments, with increases in divestment in cities such as Paris, Munster and Copenhagen last year.

Paradoxically only China may see a substantial increase in nuclear reactors given its reliance on coal for c.70% of energy generation with Inner Mongolia’s black gold classed as the Dubai of China and coal reserves in Mongolia too. Yet there is a price in air pollution affecting most of China’s larger cities: the birth defect rate in Beijing doubling and Shanxi coalfields a horrifying 30% of babies dying soon after birth and 40% with various disabilities for the rest of their life. The UK’s stillbirth and cot-death and air pollution deaths while appalling are not even close to that horror.

While Greenpeace warned of 1M tons of untreated electrical waste in China, way back in 2011, with for example toxic chromium in Yunnan, the hub-city for ASEAN, over 200x the safe limit. And in Kent the safety of Belgian and French nuclear reactors along the Channel coast will face ever more demands on safety and cleanup give the sabotage affecting Doels reactor prior to the Brussels airport/tube terror attacks, along with the safety problems at Dungeness.

The Chinese reliance on fossil fuel, 15.6% of global energy total in 2006 to 20.7% in 2030 and 16.6M barrels of oil will impact more than trade. With 80% of that oil imported it helps to drive both the Silk Road and Belt initiatives into Iran, and the Chinese naval strategy around the Paracels and Spratleys – the latter even further South than HCMC in Vietnam, and the new Chinese naval and submarine base at Hainan – usually a Chinese Hawaii holiday island. The announcement by Obama on lifting the Vietnam arms embargo no doubt linked to extra scrutiny of Chinese actions on the various reefs. China must surely with an eventual reunification with Taiwan in the next decade or so question what its navy would be for? Certainly pushing the US Fleet back beyond the island chains off the Chinese coast to Guam is not unreasonable.

Nor perhaps restraining the Russian Far East as only a sliver of a European power of only 8M people in the vastness of Siberia on China’s doorstep of 1.3BN people. But with the Department of Defence spending as much on its military as the rest of the world put together, the question is whether China would want to invest in guns and saber-rattling for almost-submerged reefs. Certainly Russia would face problems in developing most its European and Asian military again. Especially with almost 50% of US tax going on the military.

Surely China’s leaders would take a view that economic not military development would yield greater dividends in both peace and prosperity and the realpolitik of internal security as it scrambles towards regaining its world economic power as before the nineteenth century - but this time fully involved in the world. Shanghai has already built the equivalent of 334 Empire State buildings in the last decade or so - surely a better use of funds than ships and submarines. Much needs to be done: Wenzhou’s 2011 hispeed rail crash resulted in 39 deaths, a fall in use by over 15% and a lingering cloud over both corruption and how China is to be united through its huge distances, traffic jams on the road and car pollution combined with fossil fuel power station pollution.

But Chinese bases at Djibouti near to the Suez Canal, discussions around Viajes in the Azores and Mediterranean entrance, Walvis Bay in Namibia near the Cape, and even a Chinese military-run space telescope in Argentina all mark the keys to almost all the locks of a reworked Mahan naval strategy for the 21st century. Or perhaps just money frittered away before naval disarmament discussions and an India-China arms race rather than the priorities of an ageing population and improved healthcare system or revamping the education system – only now Chinese universities are entering the top 200 rankings.

For all its raw economic might as now the world’s 2nd largest economy, and innovations such as Huawei 100G telecoms, the sleeping giant of China may well have feet of clay relying on ghost town construction booms and fossil fuels, with riots in several cities over corruption and pollution and languishing only around 84th place in global GDP per head. More Algeria than Japan. And one linked to an increasingly unstable and deadly North Korea.

China may well move through the next stage of its economic development by concentrating on liberalising its markets for greater foreign investment, innovation rather than technology-copying and the murk of SOE corruption and shadow banking.


Saturday, 21 May 2016

Sincerity core client aims

Sincerity: Client Core List 2016 v.3

A. Core

1.Panasonic 2.Nestle 3.Fox 4.Starbucks 5.Willis

6.Jardines: JLT, Dairy Farm, Pizza Hut, Gammon (Basson docks – HCMC), HK Land, Rhee
7.HSBC 8.Standard Chartered 9.ANZ Bank 10.Global Witness 11.Amnesty 12.Freedom House
13.CAAT 14.SOAS 15.LSE 16.Audi 17.VW 18.Mercedes Benz 19.Penguin,
20.UNESCO 21.UN Women 22.UN Peacekeepers and London: IMO/Refugee/Unicef 23.Smile Train 24.Jubilee Debt 25.Red Cross 26.Agent Orange
27.Commonwealth War Graves 28.FTSE 250 29.Fortune 500 30.City UK

31.12x Gov Depts 32.DECC charities 33.News editors 34.Colleges 35.Film Studios 36.Agents
37.UN BKK 38.UN Fukuoka – Habitat 39.Reuters/Bloomberg

•Lotus de Lao – flowers, jewellery, coffee shop – France1900: Lao Royals •Dalat de Vietnam – France 1950 •Saigon ‘67 •Siam Sunrise: Lanna, Sukothai – 1930

B. Thailand hotels/resorts

1.Siam Paragon 2.Siam Center 3.MBK 4.Gaysorn #BKK •Dusit Thani •Centara Grand Ladprao •Hilton Sukhumvit •Novotel Siam Square •Centara Grand Centralworld •OP Place •Sheraton Grande Sukhumvit •Intercontinental •Sansiri •Millennium Hilton •Imperial Queens Park •Holiday Inn, Silom •LeMeridien •Anantara, riverside •Pathumwan Princess Hotel •Grand Hyatt, Erawan •Renaissance, Ratchapranong •Shangri-La •Plaza Athenee, Royal Meridian •The Landmark •St Regis


•Hilton Hua Hin resort •The Peninsula Bangkok •The Okura prestige Bangkok •Dusit Thani Hua Hin •Centara Grand Hua Hin •Hyatt Regency •Intercontinental #Krabi/Phuket •Nishaville •Centara grand •Pimalai •Phulay bay •Rayavadee •Sheraton •Sofitel •Intercontinental Samui Baan •Rawi Warin •Angsana Phuket •Centara Grand, Phuket •Dusit Thani, Phuket •JW Marriott, Phuket •The Westin, Phuket •The Naka Island, Phuket


•Sheraton •Amari •Dusit Thani •Banyan tree •Deevana


•Shangri La, Chiang Mai •The Chedi Chiang Mai •W Koh Samui •Indigo pearl, Phuket •Sri Panwa, Phuket •Relais and Chateaux •Wanakarn •Malisa

C.Thailand clients:

1.True Mobile 2.7-11 retail 3.SCG – Sima cement group 4.Embassy mall 5.Paragon mall 6.Thai Airways 7.UN BKK 8.Thai tourism 9.Airports: Suvarnhabhum, Don Mueang 10.King Power group 11.SRT Thai Railways 12.Government depts.: transport, planning 13.British Council

14.Schools/universities 15.Asia Books 16.Bangkok Airways 17.NokAir 18.Robinson Dept Store 19.Grand Westin hotel 20.Siam Square mall 21.Terminal21 mall 22.BTS skytrain 23.Tesco Lotus 24.Boots
25.UK companies in Thailand
26.USA companies in Thailand
27.Australia companies in Thailand
28.Canada companies in Thailand
29.AIG insurance 30.Asia Beach games/sports 31.Existing Thai advertisers

D. Core F500

1.Coca-Cola 2.McDonalds 3.Unilever 4.Proctor and Gamble 5.Paramount 6.Philips 7.Alpro 8.Heineken 9.Bank of Luxembourg 10.Thai Airways 11.Thai Tourism 12.Visit UK 13.Visit Scotland 14.Microsoft 15.Samsung 16.Honda 17.Nissan 18.Toyota 19.Tokio Marine 20.Kawasaki 21.Mitsuoka

E. Kent Clients

1.Canterbury Cathedral 2.Visit Kent 3.KCC 4.CCC 5.Kent University 6.CCU 7.EK College 8.Pfizer 9.Discovery Park 10.Churchill Languages 11.Fujifilm 12.Eurotunnel 13.Eurostar 14.PandO 15.Megger 16.Port of Dover 17.White Cliffs 18. Hornby/Scalextric

F. Japan Clients

1. Mitsubishi 2. Kawasaki 3. Tokio Marine 4. Sony 5. #Samsung 6. Toyota 7. Honda 8. Nissan 9. Sharp 10. Toshiba 11. Sanyo 12. #LG 13. Teal 14. HiSense 15. SMBC Sumitomo

Friday, 20 May 2016

Thai rice: a hunger game with ASEAN or white gold?

Perhaps the strangest aspect of ASEAN in recent years is rice. Clearly Thailand is the Iron Rice Bowl of ASEAN, and ASEAN is the Iron Rice Bowl of the world. Of course Indonesia may well quibble over that description – as Myanmar would have in previous decades before military misrule brought low the Golden Land of rice and rubies. And by World Bank data, the Golden Land has a long way to go: 80% of the Myanmar rural population lacks access to electricity, 37% lack access to clean drinking water, and only 12% of roads are paved. As recently as 2013-2014, total spending by the Myanmar Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation on seed and extension programs, was only 0.22% of agricultural GDP (or 0.07% of total GDP), well below the globally recommended benchmark of 1% of agricultural GDP. Only 1% of the demand for paddy seed is estimated to be met by supply in Myanmar, compared to nearly 100% in Thailand and Vietnam.

And Thai rice exports are bountiful. Indeed so much rice is grown in Thailand – and quality rice at that – and harvested, that there is a long-term issue of land use. The trade-off of land to be left as jungle, cleared for rice or used for housebuilding, or indeed reservoirs given the ongoing drought, will be ever more compelling for Thailand. If not the rest of ASEAN too with limited land in mountainous Vietnam or crowded Singapore and Malaysia – or crowded and flooded Bangladesh. And the necessity of the dizzying technology of the rice terraces of Philippines maximising every inch of arable land there. Thai rice is all the more important given the impact on agriculture and living standards in ASEAN with say the rubber sector given the development of UK’s Graphene, some 200x more flexible than rubber and capable of being developed in automated lights-out factories. Or the impact on sugar cane across the Pacific and Caribbean nations, and new UK trading partners such as Cuba, with the rise in UK and EU sugar taxes and healthy eating laws - sugar perhaps soon an agri-industry as in decline as tobacco.

An economy on the back-burner without rice? One of the worst droughts in Thailand in living memory with temperatures soaring over 40F – the rubber crop reduced again by over half – resulted in the very unusual situation of a 50% decline in Thai rice in the first half of 2016. A factor of little concern though given the massive Rice Scheme stocks already held for both domestic and export markets. While a key issue in recent years has been a political dispute as to how much of the Rice Scheme was corrupt or not. A politico-legal issue that was a factor in the imposition of military rule in May 2014, and dragging the former PM Yingluck’s regime through the courts that would (almost) make the UK’s Chilcot Inquiry into the Iraq War look rapid.

And raised concerns around a judicial coup not that dissimilar to the recent President Roussef case in Brazil. Military rule while brief and relatively benign, has widely dampened down FDI investment in Thailand through uncertainty: foreign investment already down 70% in 2015, and growth flickering unsteadily around the 3% mark. Even the ban on Yingluck travel to the European Parliament only resulted in an MEP delegation visiting her in Thailand, as the handover process to the new constitution and referendum begins to return the Land of Smiles to full democracy. While the Rice Scheme, where rice is so intrinsic to the economy and society (“have you eaten?” has a more exact Thai translation of “have you eaten rice yet?”), in effect serves as a fledgling welfare programme with Government fixed prices for rice purchases.

With rice and the extensive cuisine culture so central to the Thai psyche it’s perhaps apt that the Hunger Games movies, and that two-fingered salute, become a symbol of opposition to military rule, along with a variation on English afternoon tea, by protestors eating sandwiches and group readings of George Orwell: 1984 rather than Burmese Days. More than rice But the merits of such as the Thai Rice Scheme hides the truly shocking aspect of such a wealth of rice coupled with ASEAN malnutrition. Cambodia and Laos, with a combined population of just 20M of ASEAN’s 600M, would hardly be extra mouths at the table – yet suffer from malnutrition rates of a horrifying 32% according to the UN World Food Programme. A GDP cost to Cambodia of 2.5% or c.$400M pa and a third of all child deaths.. The ADB estimates a further £134M cost in vitamins with 45% of children moderately to severely stunted. Hunger even gnawing at the Cambodian education statistics with a drop-out rate of 50% in primary school. And completion of primary school taking upto 10 years due to retaking years. And similar statistics in Laos within the World Bank citing 45% of under-5’s stunted and a 2.$% loss to GDP and no doubt contributing to the 31,000 person labour shortage for Lao development.

And worth noting the Copenhagen Consensus cited a 30:1 return on investment in solving malnutrition. And just across the Pacific, Peru managed a 10.4% decline in malnutrition in 2008-12. The former ASEAN Secretary-General and Thai Foreign Minister, Surin Pitsuwan has wisely called for ASEAN to decouple itself from a nineteenth century economic model malnutrition would fit into that formula) of stepping through the stages of commodities, manufacturing and services. And to lead on a 21st century ASEAN model of innovation. Malnutrition and MegaTransport A sound policy, but one bound to hit bumps of socio-economic dislocation on the way. Not least the urgent need to fast-forward the MegaTransport projects: ASEANRail will speed the flow of rice to towns and ports across the region.

A 24/7 smooth flow only matched by the flow of 30M forecasted tourists pumping wealth into the Thai and ASEAN economies. Certainly a similar issue the UK could learn from in stumbling through the HS2 and HS3 hispeed rail activity almost 5 years after the 2012 Olympics, and long after the opening of HS1 and Eurostar in Kent through to Europe. While the first trains are already running on the Shanghai-Madrid circuit – the longest rail journey in the world for Chinese computer and auto parts, and Spanish wine and clothes.

And, despite the blandishments of other aspects of the China Silk Road-Belt, a route only ever likely to be surpassed by Shanghai-Vancouver-New York. Overland. Up through the Bering Sea road-rail tunnel, as well as onto the Latin America growth markets of Mexico, Chile, Argentina and Brazil, avoiding the ever-increasing typhoons and storms across the Pacific sea route – if the shoals and rapids of US-Russian Arctic policy can be successfully circumnavigated. Perhaps that’s a useful role for the Commonwealth, with the UK-US Special Relationship and Canada alongside the Asian Commonwealth Pacific Group of Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, Australia, NZ etc.

New ASEAN Rice Co-operation?

But as Myanmar emerges from dictatorship that too will add to the tsunami of rice available to ASEAN and depressing prices. The World Bank details that one hectare of monsoon season rice from the Delta region in Myanmar – the country’s rice bowl and one of the most fertile growing regions in the world – on average generates just $140 in profits now, compared to $340 in Cambodia and $430 in Vietnam. And for Cambodia, malnutrition is diminished only by the real problems of Bangladesh and India: the poorest regions on Earth bar Africa. All the more surprising that UKAid to the Kingdom of Cambodia with the fairly paltry sum of $20M has not been renewed as yet. Surely in the New 21st Century ASEAN Era, just as there is Naval Cooperation, and Climate Cooperation (the UK’s Met office with an ongoing partnership with Thailand), then an ASEAN Rice Cooperation Programme is imperative. Whether that’s ASEAN-wide or just the Greater Mekong Region initially, given the importance of Mekong river flow to Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, as well as the lack of desalination sites along the coast as a factor in agriculture and malnutrition.

The Mekong Delta and Bangladesh Delta are already the two most endangered areas for farming detailed by the UN Environment agency given Climate Change of not just higher sea levels or fiercer tsunamis, but also degradation of the mangrove forests and increased salination of arable land. Although the Solomon Islands may well stake a claim for that unpopular Climate Change prize with not one but five islands this month disappearing under the waves. ASEAN-Plus and MediFood Indeed surely ASEAN expansion should be considered as a part of a Greater Mekong-Indonesian rice programme – to Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste and Solomon Islands: a combined population of just c.8M neglected somewhat by both ASEAN and Australia. And certainly ripe for regeneration with the Commonwealth Asia Group again following this month’s Anti-Corruption Summit in London and UKAid budget confirmed at 0.7% of GNI, c.$20BN, second only to USA in scale.

But the value of Thai rice isn’t just the quantity but quality – a white gold of flavours. And Red, Black and Purple too, with the varieties of rice available for consumption and export – a recent visit to the Surin Rice Centre in Isaan was impressive in the dozens of varieties of rice crops and research into yield types. While the innovative OTOP and Kitchen of the World programmes, and raft of Thai Festivals in Europe, are the ideal basis for a healthier ASEAN future based on a food innovation strand of the economy. It’s all the more strange, given that Europe’s jaded palates are only really exposed to the far inferior USA rice in supermarkets. Certainly there’s an opportunity to deepen Western retailer and consumer knowledge and appreciation of Thai and ASEAN rice. Perhaps rice-tasting on a par with wine-tasting is some way off but ultimately why not? Certainly it’s no more outlandish than Jim Thompson elevating the status of Thai silk in previous decades.

Thailand has one of the world’s great cuisines and both the variety of foods, food provenance and regionalisation of cuisine are crucial for the Kitchen of the World brand activity. Already Cambodia has stolen a march with the Kampot pepper food provenance. And unfortunately the flow of Western foods into ASEAN of pizza and burgers has resulted in the knock-on effect obesity and diabetes and supersized cancers that are the Western version of malnutrition: not so much not enough to eat, but too much, and too unhealthy.

ASEAN universities are now in the recent Times Top 200 research rankings, so surely the Food Innovation strand could be developed further in Thailand, whether more medic-based at Mahidol, or agri-based at Kasetsart, as long overdue and booming economic strand of food-health programmes. Science now adding an edge to the adages of eat yourself fitter, and you are what you eat, with the rigour of scientific testing and fortified foods alongside the plethora of health fads (in the tinned and prepacked and microwaved West) such as goji berries. With careful cultivation, Thai rice could well be the antidote not just to ASEAN malnutrition but Europe’s and the wider West too.

Tim Garbutt is a UK candidate for Parliament in 2020, with a Thailand focus, and owner of Sincerity advertising agency soon to launch in ASEAN, and Surin School charity with the first school built in Isaan.

Thursday, 12 May 2016

Ringing of the bell on Tobacco with plain packs

The EU approval of plain packaging for tobacco, and tighter regulation of ecigarettes, this week is a landmark in advertising and marketing. Legislating a product or business out of existence is not new, whether asbestos or child chimney sweeps. But the removal of branding is something new – off the top of my head I can only think of legislation restricting the use of the swastika imagery in post-war Germany.

Cigarette brands now must specify not just the health warnings that already exist (although some countries go further than UK with horror imagery of rotten lungs and teeth etc). But also now specifying the pack colour – a plain olive drab chosen to be as unappealing as possible – and the font size and prominence. And most radical of all, restricting the brand name to a standard typeface. Out go the billions invested in imagery and design for Marlboro, Lucky Strikes, Gitanes, Camel and Silk Cut.

And if cigarettes are now effectively a commodity brand, it’s but a short step to further restrictions of sale with store and brand permits. This month already sees the end of menthol cigarettes, the supposedly safer smoke, and packs of 10 following vending machine sales, and store displays into the dustbin. Tobacco manufacturers are even banned from using existing brand names on ecigarettes.

Certainly the larger supermarkets must be reviewing their CSR strategies and considering how long they can get away with stocking cigarettes at all - and how they use those profits, rather than knowingly profiting from their customers’ likely ill-health. While the first health evidence suggests ecigarettes are 90% safer than existing cigarettes, and a step towards giving up smoking, but are also likely to be regulated out of existence. Imperial Tobacco may now be the 2nd largest company in the FTSE100 but what price its shares in the near future unless it follows a similar BP corporate strategy of beyond oil? And where tobacco leads, regulation must follow for other products.

Arms exports are now restricted as of this year for out of the EU, and the Arms Trade Treaty restricts small arms and ammunition. The writing is on the wall for the large arms manufacturers not just in sales restrictions but a tightening of corporate welfare for the likes of BAE, Thales, Lockheed, Rolls Royce etc, and their subsidiaries. While booze brands such as Diageo’s portfolio or pub chains will need to move faster on safer drinking levels – safe drinking levels also reduced this year by Public Health England.

And even those advertising staples, the fast food giants, such as Kentucky Fried Chicken (rebranding to KFC away for fried meat – and appalling square meals advertising), McDonalds, Burger King and even Haagen Daaz or Fray Bentos etc must be moving faster to healthier eating given the triple whammy of the tobacco precedent, and UN warning on red meat and cancer, and UK sugar/soda tax this year.

And already as of last year, New York City has moved towards restrictions on transfats and supersize portions that have so far been a key part of the fast food giants and obesity and diabetes epidemics.. While, under the umbrella of SDG2030 and especially Goal 12 of Sustainable Consumption a new era in branding is developing where brands such as Unilever and Nestle are stepping forward to fast-forward not just healthier products or food provenance, but Climate Change policies through the whole supply chain.

Changing product formulations to low fat or switching sugars to sweeteners may ripple across taste buds initially but consumer scrutiny over Climate Change, Conflict Minerals or Fairtrade are deeper and detailed than most brands are used to.

If Sweden is already as a nation achieving 52% of its energy from renewables then surely larger brands would be achieving that figure rather than the 20% forecast over the next decade? And certainly Swedish brands such as Ikea or Volvo? And the global scrutiny facilitated by social media, will switch to the amelioration of the plight of countries such as Malawi reliant on tobacco crops until now, or the sugar plantations of Cuba or Philippines or pampas of Argentina, proving a challenge for the governments of and corporations in those countries.

Just as brands such as Adidas or Marks and Spencer or Nike or Apple face scrutiny over their supply chain processes given the 2013 Savar garment factory collapse and Foxconn suicides and early deaths, salaries and gender equality, in and beyond the Boardroom, in Bangladesh or Cambodia. The end of Marlboro packs is the ringing of the bell on the old way of brands and advertising and the first round of SDG2030 goals.

Tim Garbutt, Sincerity Agency @timg33